Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been contained. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on containing specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a capability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles streaked across the sky – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by Western partners.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems thundered: several firings deployed against a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: maybe the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and heating outages in many homes as a result of the evening attack. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on Western support – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The comprehensive proposal from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the identical sequence: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. US administration functions according to a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to relinquish the land that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not change more in its advantage in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any initiative Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains quite doubtful that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.