Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but each side has possesses something to learn from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, urged the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish question."