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Initially, the former US president seemed to take a firm approach concerning Ukraine. After delivering threats of "serious consequences" last August if Vladimir Putin continued blocking peace negotiations, he finally introduced substantial penalties on the Russian primary oil companies, these major energy companies. This move seriously affected Putin's capacity to support his war effort in Ukraine.

However, with his recently unveiled comprehensive peace initiative for the conflict, that was created by American and Russian diplomats without Ukrainian or EU input, he has seemingly returned to his Russia-friendly approach.

Rewarding Aggression

This initiative would essentially favor Putin for occupying Ukraine while placing the country's democratic system in danger. Despite bold statements that "The nation's independence will be upheld", large portions of the plan in reality compromise that essential independence. Seen as a Kremlin dream would likely be a disaster for Ukraine.

Demonstrating his real-estate past, Trump seems to treat the situation in Ukraine as a basic territorial dispute, like handing Putin a section of Ukrainian land will satisfy the ruler. However, Putin's invasion is not merely about occupying a destroyed area of industrial-devastated area in the Donbas region. Instead, it's about Ukraine's democracy – and Putin's clear goal to eliminate it so it no longer functions as an attractive example for the Russian citizens of the democratic governance that his deepening dictatorship denies them.

Border Surrenders

While maintaining in status the currently separated Ukrainian provinces of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson, the proposal would compel the nation to give up the whole this eastern territory. In addition to rewarding the Russian Federation with land that its troops have been unsuccessful to seize in exceeding a ten years of warfare, this concession would make Ukraine's defensive positions dangerously compromised.

This region is the location of the nation's much-vaunted "stronghold system", the well-established protective structures that constitute a critical impediment to Russian advances. Trump would have the Ukrainian military surrender these fortifications, giving Putin a unobstructed way to Kyiv if he later choose to resume the war.

Defense Reductions

Furthermore, in a move that would facilitate future hostilities easier for the Russian military, the plan would require Ukraine to diminish the numbers of its troops from their present approximately 800,000 personnel to a cap of six hundred thousand. Significantly, the initiative sets no equivalent constraints on Russia's military.

In what appears as a accommodation to Russia's attempts to characterize Ukraine's chosen by the people government as radicals, the proposal states: "All extremist ideology and activities must be condemned and prohibited." Seemingly to underscore this point, it insists that "The nation will hold elections in this period" of a ceasefire agreement. At the same time, Trump imposes no obligation that the Russian leader risk his regime by conducting votes in Russia.

Security Assurances

To be sure, the initiative includes the Russian Federation promise not to "enter neighboring countries" and to "enshrine in law its stance of non-violence towards the EU and Ukraine". However considering that Putin has broken similar accords in the previous instances – for example the 1994 Budapest memorandum, in which Russia promised to recognize Ukraine's territorial integrity in return for surrendering its former Soviet nuclear arsenal, and the 2014-2015 Minsk agreements, in which Russia promised to a truce and a return of captured territory in the Donbas to the government – how should the international community trust this commitment on this occasion?

This explains the Ukrainian government has been so insistent on western security guarantees. While the initiative promises a "strong unified armed reaction" if Russia renew its aggression, and states that "The nation will receive strong security guarantees", the specifics include fuzzy to concerning. The initiative would not just deny the nation Nato membership but also prohibit alliance nations from positioning troops on Ukrainian territory, effectively precluding the reassurance force, presumptively led by European powers, on which Ukraine had been counting to stop Russia from rebuilding his reduced forces, rearming, and resuming aggression.

International Concern

An additional side agreement according to sources would grant the nation with a alliance-like defense commitment, in which any later "major, planned, and continuous aggression" by Russia on the country "would be considered as an attack threatening the tranquility of the transatlantic community." That suggests a military response. Yet unlike a powerful Ukrainian military – Ukraine's best deterrent against renewed Russian aggression – the success of the side agreement would hinge on the willingness of alliance members, including the US administration, to react with force to Putin's attacks, a response they have {not