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Well. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to host the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

It campaigned for more than three years for the privilege to put on the largest global climate summit and sustainable business expo, which would have brought many thousands of people to the city of Adelaide next November.

That's not happening. Instead, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Turkish Mediterranean.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a significant disappointment to numerous individuals who had believed hosting the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's shift from being a fossil fuel economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring international focus to the survival crisis facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The procedure that resulted in defeat has been an opaque mess. Recently, there have been questions that the prime minister and other senior figures really wanted the bid to be approved. His statements sent mixed messages at best. This led to stories in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the message being relayed at the Cop30 talks in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Ambiguous backing is a recurring problem for Australia's Cop31 bid. While the minister supported it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to be interested.

The Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, usually in charge for international climate negotiations, has been disengaged and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered UN climate conferences a important focus. He hasn't attended one since taking office in 2022. It's uncertain, but some will wonder if more could have been done to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's the negative take. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an global viewpoint – the decision on Wednesday night may, ironically, have been the most favorable outcome available.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an unprecedented deal that he was developing with his colleague from Turkey, the Turkish minister. Turkey would be the conference leader, host and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would take on the position as "chief negotiator", wrangling nearly 200 countries on the matters that the countries actually turn up for – the talks on how to together combat the climate crisis.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an island nation.

Reasons for Doubt

Multiple reasons exist for scepticism. Turkey and Australia do not have a close relationship. Specific aspects of the agreement had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The whole thing could collapse before it begins.

However, it might represent a way to salvage something useful from what looked like an impending disaster for the multilateral work on climate change.

The Turkish government is generally viewed in the international community as having been hellbent on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is designed to operate by consensus. Typically, that means if there are several nations in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is quietly done to encourage them to exit the race.

Turkey clearly had weaker endorsement than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 countries responsible for nominating next year's venue had backed the Australian bid.

But, exceptionally, Turkey declined to withdraw. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in the past week, and not just by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Ankara's stubbornness can be interpreted as a reflection of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no major power with the influence to stare down the petroleum exporters that provided the Turkish government with certain protection.

President Erdoğan is considered aligned with Vladimir Putin. Some countries worried about a summit hindered from the leadership if his government led the negotiations. Germany did not want to have to host an unprepared Cop31 at the UN environmental office in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't resolved.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was needed. International frameworks is flawed and often unsettling to watch, but multilateral action has empirically made a difference in the battle with climate change. This joint approach is a creative idea that keeps that going when it is needed more than ever.

Despite reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its hypocritical support for increasing fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in UN conferences see Bowen as a positive influence in the talks. He has been asked to lead negotiation streams at each of the four conferences he has participated in.

This matters. Although some have dismissed the importance of a "president of negotiations", experts from academic institutions and veteran observers at environmental negotiations assert it is crucial to their positive outcome.

"Every successful Cop has been shaped by a leader directing proceedings who can understand, forge agreement and achieve an significant result. We saw that in the German capital in 1995, in Cancún in 2010 and the French capital in 2015. We saw the opposite in Copenhagen in 2009," they note. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society plays a vital role at environmental summits. How, if anything, can the Australian government do to prevent a crackdown on civil society by the host government?

Perhaps not much. But that doesn't stop this deal looking like the most promising opportunity available to have a conference that may provide benefits for the Pacific region, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.